Report: COVID-19 deaths in Illinois expected to peak by mid-April

The number of COVID-19 deaths in Illinois could peak at 91-per-day by mid-April, according to a study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The study, which looked at data from local and national government, social distancing policies, data from the American Hospital Association on licensed hospital beds, intensive care unit capacity and death rates in other countries, says Illinois will hit its peak on April 16. That same day, the study expects Illinois will need to have at least 1,335 ICU beds and 721 ventilators available.

The number of daily deaths is anticipated to decline by late April to early May, with Illinois expected to experience nearly 2,500 deaths by the end of May.

Illinois is similar to the national projection, which anticipates that hospitalizations will generally peak in mid-April.

However, the projections are based on individuals, hospitals, healthcare workers and policymakers remaining vigilant about mitigating the virus’ spread, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the institute.

“The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions,” he said. “We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

Gov. JB Pritzker said during his Sunday press conference that they have taken information from the study and merged it with their in-house data and research.

“I think it is fair to say that most of the models that I’ve seen, and we’ve seen a number of them, show that we will be peaking in April in Illinois,” he said.

He added the state will continue to expand hospital bed space and take other proactive steps to help prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed by patients.

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